Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) predicts that by 2022, more IP traffic will cross global networks than in all prior ‘internet years’ combined up to the end of 2016.
Pravin Prashant
We are looking at emerging technology trends from Cisco VNI Report 2017-22
M2M connections will contribute 51% of total connections
By 2022, M2M connections will be 51% of the total devices and connections as we are seeing an increased number of M2M applications such as smart meters, video surveillance, healthcare monitoring, transportation and package or asset tracking, are contributing in a major way to the growth of devices and connections. M2M connections will be the fastest-growing category followed by smartphones and Connected TVs (which include flat-panel TVs, set-top boxes, digital media adapters (DMAs), Blu-ray disc players, and gaming consoles).
By 2022, the consumer share of the total devices will be 72 percent, with business claiming the remaining 28 percent. Consumer share will grow at a slightly slower rate, at an 8.8 percent CAGR relative to the business segment, which will grow at a 12.0 percent CAGR. Among the countries that will have the highest average of per capita devices and connections by 2022 are the United States (13.6), South Korea (11.8) and Canada (11.0).
IPv6 adoption to gain momentum
Building on the Cisco VNI IPv6-capable devices analysis, the forecast estimates that globally there will be nearly 18.3 billion IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices by 2022, up from nearly 6 billion in 2017, a CAGR of 26 percent. In terms of percentages, 64 percent of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable by 2022, up from 32 percent in 2017.
Globally, fixed and mobile network operators are broadly deploying IPv6 protocol and supporting significant volumes of IPv6 traffic as a percentage of their overall IP traffic. The range of examples include France’s Free Telecom (40%), KDDI (46%), AT&T (63%), Comcast (64%), Verizon Wireless (86%), Reliance Jio (88%) and T-Mobile (94%).
Looking to 2022, if 60 percent of IPv6-capable devices are actively connected to an IPv6 network, the forecast estimates that globally IPv6 traffic would amount to 132 EB per month or 38 percent of total Internet traffic.
M2M connections to grow 2.4x
Globally, M2M connections will grow 2.4-fold, from 6.1 billion in 2017 to 14.6 billion by 2022. There will be 1.8 M2M connections for each member of the global population by 2022.
Connected home applications, such as home automation, home security and video surveillance, connected white goods, and tracking applications, will represent 48 percent of the total M2M connections by 2022. Connected car, with applications such as fleet management, in-vehicle entertainment and Internet access, roadside assistance, vehicle diagnostics, navigation, and autonomous driving, will be the fastest-growing industry segment, at a 28 percent CAGR followed by Connected cities applications will have the second-fastest growth, at an 26 percent CAGR each.
Although the number of connections is growing 2.4-fold, global M2M IP traffic will grow more than seven fold over this same period, from 3.7 EB per month in 2017 to more than 25 EB by 2022. The amount of traffic is growing faster than the number of connections because of the increase of deployment of video applications on M2M connections and the increased use of applications, such as telemedicine and smart car navigation systems, which require greater bandwidth and lower latency.
IP video to contribute 80-90% of total IP traffic
The sum of all forms of IP video, which includes Internet video, IP VoD and video files exchanged through file sharing, video-streamed gaming and video conferencing, will continue to be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of total IP traffic. Globally, IP video traffic will account for 82 percent of traffic by 2022. We expect the growth of gaming traffic to continue, and gaming is one of the forms of traffic that will limit the likelihood that video traffic will exceed the projected 82 percent by 2022.
Live video already accounts for 5 percent of Internet video traffic and will grow 15-fold to reach 17 percent by 2022. Also, of note is the growth of video surveillance traffic (dropcams). This traffic is of a very different nature than live or on-demand streaming and represents a steady stream of upstream video camera traffic, uploaded continuously from homes and small businesses to the cloud.
Shift towards Internet video
Internet devices such as Digital Media Adapters (DMAs) will represent only 9 percent of all Internet connected TVs—including, service provider STBs, gaming consoles, and directly connected Internet TV sets—by 2022 but they will represent 18 percent of global Internet connected TV traffic. This trend again shows that there is increasingly less reliance on STBs managed by service providers for Internet access in general and for video specifically.
From a traffic perspective, we expect that on average a household that is still on linear TV will generate much less traffic than a household that has “cut the cord” and is relying on Internet video. A cord-cutting household generated 141 GB per month in 2017, compared to 82 GB per month for an average household. This difference occurs because linear television generates much less traffic (one stream of video shared across numerous linear-TV households) than Internet video, which is unicast to each Internet video device.
DDoS attack is a dominant cyber threat
Compounding the problem, the nature of the threats is becoming more diverse and includes Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS), ransomware, Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs), viruses, worms, malware, spyware, botnets, spam, spoofing, phishing, hacktivism and potential state-sanctioned cyberwarfare.
DDoS attacks represent the dominant threat observed by the vast majority of service providers. Average DDoS attack size in 2017 was 990 Mbps, a slight decrease from 1,133 Mbps in 2016, enough to take most organizations completely offline. However, since Memcached appeared, average attack size has increased 37 percent from 1H 2017 to 1H 2018.
DDoS attacks can represent up to 25 percent of a country’s total Internet traffic while they are occurring. In 2017, the top motivation behind DDoS attacks was criminals demonstrating attack capabilities, with gaming and criminal extortion attempts in second and third place, respectively. The events from 2017 and the first quarter of 2018 once again demonstrated that the attackers are increasing their computing resources to perform DDoS attacks.
The modern ransomware attack was born from two innovations in the early part of this decade: encryption and bitcoin. Mirai Botnet, WannaCry, Petya, NotPetya attacks were launched one after the other in 2017. With the Mirai Botnet attack in 2017, compromises and hacking took mainstage with exposing vulnerabilities in IoT in relation to home monitoring and devices. However, the concern is beyond the home as well.
Fixed broadband speeds will double
The global average fixed broadband speed continues to grow and will double from 2017 to 2022, from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps. Globally, the average mobile network connection speed in 2017 was 8.7 Mbps. The average speed will more than triple and will be 28.5 Mbps by 2022. Globally, WiFi connection speeds originated from dual-mode mobile devices will more than double by 2022. The average WiFi network connection speed (24.4 Mbps in 2017) will exceed 54.2 Mbps by 2022. North America will experience the highest WiFi speeds, 83.8 Mbps by 2022.
The latest standard, IEEE 802.11ac and 802.11 ad, are considered to be a true wired complement and can enable higher definition video streaming and services that require higher data rates. Also, an important factor in the use of WiFi technology is the number and availability of hotspots.
Four fold increase in public WiFi hotspots
Globally, there will be nearly 549 million public WiFi hotspots by 2022, up from 124 million hotspots in 2017, a four fold increase. Western Europe had the highest number of hotspots, with 48 percent of the world’s WiFi hotspots in 2017. By 2022, Asia Pacific will have the highest percentage of 47 percent. Public WiFi along with community hotspots are included in the forecast. Community hotspots or homespots have emerged as a potentially significant element of the public WiFi landscape. By 2022, China will lead in total number of homespots, followed by the United States and Japan.
Hotels, cafes, and restaurants will have the highest number of hotspots by 2022 globally, and the fastest growth is in healthcare facilities (hospitals), where hotspots will triple over the forecast period. The primary objective of WiFi in hospitals is to improve the delivery of healthcare services and staff productivity, with a secondary benefit being Internet access for patients, their families, and their guests.
According to the WBA Alliance, there is a need to find a dynamic way for IoT devices to search for a computable network and automatically roam between WiFi and mobile networks at scale without intervention. Additionally, interest in WiFi advertising and location services is growing as service providers search for new ways to monetize WiFi and generate new revenue streams. It’s also clear there is a growing awareness and acceptance among consumers that data on their location, movement and behavior can be exchanged for free WiFi.
By 2022, wired devices will account for 21 percent of Internet traffic, and WiFi and mobile devices will account for 79 percent of Internet traffic. In 2017, wired devices accounted for 35 percent of Internet traffic.
CDN will carry 72% of Internet traffic by 2022
Changes in traffic topology are being brought about by the increasing role of Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) in data delivery. CDNs will carry 72 percent of total Internet traffic by 2022, up from 56 percent in 2017. Much CDN traffic is carried by private CDNs rather than third-party CDNs. Private CDNs are those built and operated by content providers for their own content, and only their content. Private CDN capacity is not available to other content providers for purchase. Large private CDN operators include Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft.
CDNs will carry traffic closer to the end user, but presently much CDN traffic is deposited onto regional core networks. However, metro-capacity of the service provider networks is growing faster than core-capacity and will account for a third or 33 percent of total service provider network capacity by 2022, up from 27 percent in 2017.
SD-WAN traffic will grow at a CAGR of 37 percent compared to 3 percent for traditional MPLS-based WAN. SD-WAN will increase 5-fold and will be 29 percent of WAN traffic by 2022.
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